A warning from Professor Xueqin Jiang, sometimes called the “Chinese Nostradamus,” suggests that a potential war between the United States and Iran could become a long and difficult conflict for Washington. Jiang believes such a war might not only be costly but could even end in defeat after years of struggle.

Jiang argues that the United States risks entering what he describes as a “20-year trap.” According to him, Iran has spent decades preparing for a different type of warfare focused on endurance and pressure rather than traditional battlefield superiority. Instead of relying mainly on large conventional forces, Iran has invested in drones, missiles, and decentralized military capabilities that can continuously challenge stronger armies.

These systems are relatively inexpensive compared with the advanced defense technologies used by major powers. Jiang points out that missile defense systems and interceptors can cost millions of dollars, while the drones or rockets they destroy may cost far less. This imbalance could create a serious strategic problem over time.

According to Jiang, in a prolonged conflict the economic factor may become more important than raw military strength. The side that can maintain production, replace equipment, and sustain its resources for longer may gain the advantage in the end.

He also warns that the effects of such a conflict could go far beyond the battlefield. Key infrastructure in the Middle East, including oil facilities and major shipping routes, could be threatened. Particular concern surrounds the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global energy corridor. Any instability there could disrupt oil supplies, increase prices, and trigger wider economic shocks around the world.

Although Jiang’s prediction may or may not come true, his warning reflects a broader concern among analysts that modern wars are increasingly shaped by endurance, economic pressure, and the ability to adapt over time rather than by overwhelming military force alone.